Transition State Planning (TSP). This borrows ideas from Complexity Theory: Specifically, the characteristics of Complex Adaptive Systems. Starting with the premise that no one can predict the long-range future and that outcomes will emerge at various points along the way.

Much like ’Scenario Planning’, it starts with a few hypothetical ideas. These are then refined in workshops with subject experts until a reasonable consensus is reached. ‘Transition States’; Each has a few goals (expected outcomes) that we estimate to complete and some statements of 'pass-criteria' for that Transition Sate to be declared complete. At this stage, the Transition States are not pinned to a hard date. They describe the sequence of outcomes, and roughly when we think they'll happen. Transition States are re-planning points; a time to reassess and re-estimate the next phase of work. The Transition State is an opportunity to amplify value-adding and extinguish value-detracting aspect.